Expected Value Calculator
Odds plus your true probability, as expected value per bet.
True chance, as…
Verdict
+10.53% EV
£100 → £110.53 average (+£10.53)
- Edge / unit
- +10.53%
- True chance
- 52.63%
- Implied by your odds
- 47.62%
- Break-even odds
- 1.900
- Min odds to bet
- ≥ 1.90
Fair odds from a two-way market
Enter both sides of a market to strip out the bookmaker's margin.
Margin 1.28%
Fair: A 2.026 (49.4%) · B 1.975
Expected value is the average result of a bet if you could place it many times. It is positive when the price you get is longer than the true odds — the book is paying you more than the risk is worth. That gap is your edge.
Enter the odds you can actually bet and your own fair estimate of the true odds. The calculator returns the EV per unit staked and what an average £100 bet would return. Anything above 0% is a value bet; the bigger the number, the bigger the edge.
FAQ
- How is expected value calculated?
- EV per unit = p × (odds − 1) − (1 − p), where p is the true win probability (1 divided by the fair odds). Multiply by your stake for the money figure.
- What counts as a good EV?
- Sustained edges of 1–3% are strong in efficient markets. Larger numbers usually mean your probability estimate is off, or the price is about to move.
- Do I need +EV on every bet to profit?
- No — only on average. Individual +EV bets still lose often; profit comes from placing many of them over time.