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actfap

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Quick answers

The maths behind the odds, worked to a number

Four questions a new player actually arrives with, each worked out below, with the full method one link away.

  • How do I convert odds to implied probability?

    Divide 1 by the decimal odds. 2.50 decimal is 1 / 2.50 = 0.40, a 40% implied chance. American +150 is 100 / (150 + 100) = 40%, and fractional 3/2 is 2 / (3 + 2) = 40%, every format describes the same probability.

    Full method: betting odds explained
  • What is a positive expected value (+EV) bet?

    One where the price is better than the true probability, so you profit on average over many bets. If your fair estimate is 1.90 decimal and a book offers 2.10, that gap is roughly +10% expected value per unit staked.

    Full method: expected value betting
  • How much of my bankroll should I stake?

    Enough to survive variance. A flat 1–2% per bet is a common cautious rule. The Kelly criterion sizes the stake from your edge and the odds, and most people use a half- or quarter-Kelly fraction to smooth the swings.

    Full method: bankroll management
  • Does the Martingale system work?

    Not over time. Doubling your bet after every loss recovers small amounts until a losing streak pushes the next bet past the table limit or your bankroll, and then a single run wipes out every prior gain.

    Full method: betting systems explained

Who makes this

The person building this, and what he does for a living.

Alexander Korsager is the founder of actfap.com. He has worked in iGaming since 2016 and is currently Chief Gaming Officer at Legend, where he oversees Casino.org and Casino.guru. actfap.com carries no affiliate links, no ads, no paid placements and no operator relationships of its own, built and funded independently of that day job.

  • About actfap

    The full story: the founder, the conflict disclosed plainly, and how every calculator's figure is sourced and tested.

  • Corrections policy

    How to report a wrong number or claim, and what happens once one is confirmed.

  • Responsible gambling

    Warning signs, staying in control, and where to get free, confidential help.

21+, and only where gambling is legal where you are. Working the numbers out correctly does not remove a house edge or turn a losing bet into a winning one, and gambling can cause serious harm. The National Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and open 24/7: call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), or chat at ncpgambling.org/chat. More on staying in control.

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