NFL Teaser Calculator
Prices a teaser by the specific numbers it crosses, not a flat payout table that cannot see it.
This prices the mechanical effect of which key numbers a teaser leg crosses, against a specific historical payout survey. It is not a prediction of which of your legs will cover this week.
Win probability, 4-leg 6-point teaser
25.2%
to win, +0.65% EV against a 3.00-to-1 payout
2 of 4 legs cross both 3 and 7.
Every leg has to land
Against the payout
Legs, by original spread
- Crosses 3 and 7
- Crosses 3 and 7
- No key numbers
- No key numbers
Enter each leg’s spread as printed on the original bet slip, before teasing: negative for a favorite giving points, positive for an underdog getting them. The tool adds the tease points itself.
- Left of 0 your side loses by that many points, right of 0 it wins.
- Original line
- Teased line
- Margins the tease adds
- 3 and 7
Your ticket against the same leg count, all-random and all-key-number
Your ticket, win probability25.16%
Expected value +0.65%
All random, win probability22.02%
Expected value -11.92%
All key-number, win probability28.75%
Expected value +15.00%
All three columns use the same 4-leg payout of 3.00 to 1. Only the win probability changes, because only the win probability depends on which numbers each leg crosses.
Why 3 and 7
3 points15.7%
7 points9.3%
10 points6.2%
6 points5.4%
4 points5.0%
14 points4.8%
1 points4.0%
17 points3.6%
2 points3.5%
5 points3.2%
Share of games decided by each margin, the ten most common.
A margin of exactly 3 or exactly 7 accounts for about 25.0% of every NFL game played, far more than any other two margins combined. A tease that happens to move a spread across one of these two numbers adds a large, concentrated share of outcomes to your side. See how this is calculated, below.
Payout and all-key-number EV at every leg count, 6-point teaser
Every leg count from 2 to 10 at once, so you do not have to run the tool nine times to see the shape. The methodology note below has the payout table and sourcing behind these numbers.
| Legs | Payout | All key-number EV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.87 to 1 | +0.24% | |
| 3 | 1.80 to 1 | +9.94% | |
| 4 (yours) | 3.00 to 1 | +15.00% | |
| 5 | 4.50 to 1 | +15.79% | |
| 6 | 7.00 to 1 | +23.32% | |
| 7 | 10.00 to 1 | +24.17% | |
| 8 | 15.00 to 1 | +32.25% | |
| 9 | 15.00 to 1same as 8 legs | -3.16% | |
| 10 | 20.00 to 1 | -6.93% |
The payout for 9 legs is identical to 8, at every tease size shown here: the book asks for one more leg to land and pays nothing extra for it, and that flat step alone is why the all-key-number line above turns negative at 9 and 10 legs even though each individual leg still wins more often than a random one. This column is the all-key-number benchmark, not your own ticket; use it to see the shape, then read your own ticket’s expected value in the result above.
The payout odds this page uses are the best available across a specific historical survey of sportsbooks, not a live quote from any book today. Teaser odds have shortened across the industry since 2014, so treat the expected value figures above as an upper bound on what a real ticket is worth, and check your own book’s payout before betting. Legs are also treated as independent: two legs from the same game, or games affected by the same conditions, are not modeled as moving together.
Written and reviewed by Alexander Korsager · last reviewed September 26, 2026 · corrections
The idea
What this tool shows
A teaser moves every leg's point spread in your favor by a fixed number of points, for worse payout odds than a straight parlay on the same legs. What that trade is actually worth has almost nothing to do with the extra points themselves. It depends on which specific numbers on the field those points carry the bet across, because NFL games do not end on every margin equally: a game is decided by exactly 3 points far more often than by any other margin, and by exactly 7 second most often. A leg whose spread crosses both of those numbers wins at a meaningfully higher rate than one that crosses neither, and a book's flat payout table pays the same either way.
This page prices the difference.Enter the original spread for each leg, pick a tease size, and it sorts each leg into one of two buckets: crosses both 3 and 7, known as a Wong teaser leg after Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting, or does not. Each bucket carries its own win probability, both taken directly from a large published sample of real NFL results rather than estimated from a formula, and the ticket's win chance is the product of its legs' own probabilities, because a teaser is all or nothing: every leg has to cover for the ticket to pay.
The number most teaser pages stop at is the payout.This one goes one step further and multiplies the win probability by that payout to get expected value, the figure that actually says what the trade you just built is worth. A ticket built entirely from key-number legs at 6 points is a genuinely different bet from one built at random, and the gap between their expected values is usually the largest single lever a teaser bettor controls.
Nothing here is simulated and nothing is a model of our own.The win probabilities and the payout odds are transcribed from a published analysis of thousands of real NFL games, and the qualifying spread ranges for a Wong leg are the source's own stated ranges, not derived from a distribution ourselves. Where this page's own arithmetic does something (turning a table of nine leg counts into one per-leg figure, or multiplying probability by payout for expected value), that step is pinned by a test and checked against every row the source publishes, not asserted.
FAQ
Questions players ask
What is a Wong teaser?
A teaser leg whose spread, after adding the tease points, has moved across both the 3-point and 7-point margin of victory, the two most common ways an NFL game is decided. Named for Stanford Wong, whose book Sharp Sports Betting described using this specific gap in flat payout odds. At 6 points, the qualifying spreads are a favorite between -8.5 and -7.5, or an underdog between +1.5 and +2.5. The ranges are wider at 6.5 and 7 points, and this page uses each tease size's own range rather than one shared number.
Why does crossing 3 and 7 matter more than the number of points?
Because an NFL game's outcome is not spread evenly across every possible margin. Over the 4,450-game sample this page's figures come from, about 15.7% of games are decided by exactly 3 points and 9.3% by exactly 7, together about a quarter of every game played. A tease that happens to move a spread across one of those two specific numbers adds a large, concentrated share of outcomes to your winning side. A tease of the same size that crosses only ordinary, low-frequency margins adds much less, even though the number of points moved is identical.
Does crossing 3 and 7 always mean positive expected value?
No, and the leg count matters as much as the crossing does. At 6 points, an all-Wong ticket's expected value is positive from 2 through 8 legs against the payout odds this page uses, but turns negative at 9 and 10 legs: the extra payout no longer makes up for how rarely that many legs all land, however favorable each individual leg's own odds are. Check the expected value this page prints for your own leg count rather than assuming the Wong label alone puts expected value on your side.
Why do the payout odds here look better than what I can find at a sportsbook today?
The payout table this page uses is the best available across a specific survey of sportsbooks at the time of the source analysis, and the source itself notes that teaser odds have shortened across the industry since 2014. Treat the expected value figures here as an upper bound on what a real ticket is worth today, not a live quote from any specific book. Your own sportsbook's payout for the same leg count may be worse, which would make the real expected value lower than what this page shows.
Does this page know which of my legs will actually cover?
No. It knows how often legs with each spread have covered across a large historical sample, which is not a prediction about any specific game this week. A leg's true probability of covering depends on the two teams involved, injuries and matchup details this page has no way to see. What it prices honestly is the mechanical effect of which numbers your spread crosses, which is real and knowable in advance, separately from how good your underlying picks are.
Can I mix Wong and non-Wong legs on one ticket?
Yes, and the page prices exactly that. Each leg is judged on its own spread, and the ticket's win probability is the product of whichever probability each leg earned. The page also shows what the same leg count and tease size would return as an all-random ticket and as an all-Wong ticket, so you can see where your actual mix sits between the two.
Methodology
How this is calculated
Each leg is classified by whether its original spread, after adding the tease points, has crossed both the 3 and 7-point margin of victory, using the qualifying spread ranges the source states for each tease size.
A crossing leg is priced at the Wong per-leg win probability for that tease size; every other leg is priced at the random per-leg probability.
Both figures are recovered from the source's own published multi-leg win-probability tables by taking the leg count's-th root of the shortest (2-leg) row, and pinned in math.test.ts against every one of the source's leg-count rows from 2 through 10, within the precision the source itself publishes to.
A teaser ticket is all or nothing, so the ticket's win probability is the product of its legs' own probabilities and nothing is simulated or enumerated beyond that multiplication. Expected value is that probability times the payout (stake included) for the entered leg count, minus one, expressed as a percentage of the stake.
Common misreadings4
- A positive expected value here is not a promise. It is what the historical rate and a specific payout table imply on average, over many tickets like this one, not an outcome for this week's games.
- The Wong label describes the numbers a spread crosses, not the strength of the underlying pick. A key-number leg on a pick that was never likely to cover keeps that same low chance of covering, just priced at a better rate than a non-crossing leg would get.
- A higher win probability at more legs is not automatic. The leg-count ladder above shows every leg count's expected value at once: at 6 points, an all-key-number ticket is profitable from 2 through 8 legs and turns unprofitable at 9 and 10, because the payout for 9 legs is identical to 8, one more leg has to cover for no extra money.
- This is not advice to bet at any stake. A teaser, like any multi-leg bet, concentrates risk: the whole stake is lost if any single leg misses, however many legs crossed a key number.
Assumptions6
- Each leg's original spread is the number you enter, before teasing. The tool adds the tease points itself to determine which numbers get crossed; it does not ask for the post-tease spread.
- The spread must sit on the half-point grid every NFL line is quoted on (a multiple of 0.5, like -7.5 or 6). This page has no sourced win rate for anything off that grid, so it shows no result and says why rather than pricing it against a rounded number you did not enter.
- Win probabilities come from a large historical sample of NFL results (4,450 games, 1994 to 2012 seasons) and are applied as a general rate for any leg with a qualifying spread, not adjusted for the two specific teams on your ticket.
- Legs are treated as independent. Two legs from the same game, or games that are themselves correlated (weather affecting a slate of outdoor games, for instance), are not modeled as moving together.
- The payout for each leg count is the best available figure the source found across its surveyed sportsbook group at the time of that analysis, not a live quote from any specific book today.
- Only 6, 6.5 and 7-point teasers are supported. Other tease sizes exist at some books; this page does not have a sourced Wong-qualifying range for them.
Limits4
- Payout odds move. The source itself notes that generous teaser odds have shortened industry-wide since 2014, so the expected value figures here are closer to a ceiling on what a ticket is worth than to today's live price at any specific book.
- The win-probability tables come from one historical sample. A shift in how the NFL is officiated or scored (extra-point distance, overtime rules) can move margin-of-victory frequencies going forward in a way a fixed historical table cannot see.
- Per-leg probabilities are recovered by treating each leg as having the same fixed win rate within its bucket (Wong or random) and taking a geometric mean across the source's leg-count rows. The source's own published rows already differ from that single figure by a small amount at each leg count, which this page's tests measure and bound rather than hide.
- Correlation between legs, when it exists, is not priced. Correlated legs that tend to land together make a ticket's real variance different from what independent legs would produce, in a direction this page does not estimate.
Evidence
All win probabilities, payout odds and Wong-qualifying spread ranges are transcribed from the Wizard of Odds NFL teaser analysis, https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/, retrieved 2026-09-14, based on 4,450 NFL games across the 1994 to 2012 seasons.
Two of the six per-leg win-probability figures this page uses (the 6.5 and 7-point Wong rates) are stated directly in that source's own prose as 74.14% and 74.61%; math.test.ts checks this page's own recovered figures against both to within a tenth of a percentage point.
The remaining four figures, and both of those two as a second check, are recovered from the source's published multi-leg win-probability tables and pinned against every leg count from 2 through 10 in the same test file.
The key-number context (why 3 and 7 specifically) comes from the same page's "Top Margin of Victories in the NFL" table, same sample; math.test.ts checks that the 3 and 7-point rows sum to the source's own quoted headline figure of about 25%.
A passing test means this page's numbers match the source's, not that the source's historical sample predicts any specific future game.
Gambling can cause serious harm. The National Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and open 24/7, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), or chat at ncpgambling.org/chat.
Related tools
Try next
- Parlay CalculatorPrice a multi-leg bet
- Round Robin CalculatorPrice every card a round robin can settle into, and the number of legs it needs before it pays for itself. Also prices the UK full-cover reading: 3 doubles, 1 treble and 3 up-and-downs on exactly 3 selections.
- No-Vig Fair Odds CalculatorStrip the bookmaker's margin out of a market to see the fair price behind every outcome.
- Odds ConverterConvert odds to any format